CHINA

 1.  Impact of the Collapse of the Soviet Union on China

The rapid collapse of the Soviet Union had put the Chinese conservative leadership in grave problem. Their major apprehensions ranged from ideological and political problem to practically deal with the security challenges along China’s northern frontier provinces.

1.1 Ideological and Political Problem

The Soviet collapse came as a vindication of the tough line followed by the Western world against China in the wake of the 1989 Tiananment massacre. For Beijing, the collapse of the Soviet Union meant China’s ideological isolation in the international arena and an end to its ability to play off Washington against Moscow. Secondly China would loose its international options to check Taiwan’s growing status in the world.

1.2  Rising Ethno – Religious Nationalism

The more alarming development for Beijing had been the fear of rising ethno-religious nationalism spilling over into China’s province, Eastern Turkistan. Even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, as mentioned in the Part I, Chinese authorities had to tighten their control over various ethnic movements in their borderlands. But, after the collapse, the response of China to the developments in former Soviet Union remained cautious. They described the developments as internal affairs. They declared that they would respect the choice made by the people in these countries. However Chinese authorities took a defensive posture and even adopted a more strident tone to forestall any effect on China.

The Soviet collapse did also encourage ethnic movements in Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Eastern Turkistan. Thus tension between Chinese central authority and ethnic population increased.

2 Beijing’s Strategic Gains from the Collapse of the Soviet Union

First of all, the Soviet collapse and new developments in the international arena have been viewed as a net strategic gain for China. China found that the formidable superpower and its principal military and ideological competitor, which had tried to encircle China with the help of India, Vietnam, Mongolia and Afghanistan as well as destabilize China’s periphery since mid-1960s, had suddenly disappeared. Moreover, Russia’s westward orientation to deal with security issues, its preoccupation with the internal political and economic crises significantly diminished the Chinese threat perception of Russia. Additionally Russia’s decision to reduce its armed forces, the strategic nuclear weapons and the Pacific fleet by 40 per cent, and Kazakhstan’s decision on the elimination of the nuclear weapons had altered the military balance in the region in favor of China. The decline in Russian power has also offered a breathing space to review its military program.

On the other hand, Beijing has made massive advanced military acquisition including the SU-27 fighters and S-300 high altitude air defense missiles from Russia. China has also bought Russian skills and experience to upgrade and modernize their own military industry.

3 The Central Asia Side

The emergence of several new neighbors in its vulnerable northwest was a matter of concern to the Chinese. Their anxiety was compounded by the increasing instability in Central Asia, following the outbreak of civil war in Tajikistan and ethnic conflict in Uzbekistan. China’s main concern was the rise of Islamic ideology that would fill the vacuum created by the Soviet collapse. For the Chinese officials, the rising ethno-Islamic solidarity would spread across to influence Chinese minorities and lead to separation of Eastern Turkistan.

However, Beijing became too happy when the governments of Central Asia themselves were becoming hostile to the rising Islamic opposition and taking tough measures to prevent Islamic fundamentalism. Thus China concerned that neither Islamic fundamentalism nor pan-Turkic nationalism is going to threaten it.

4 China’s New War: Economic Influence

China was also quick to draw economic profit from the new geopolitical situation. China has formulated an ambitious Central Asia policy. China has been adopting a more offensive economic diplomacy toward Central Asia with the aim of stabilizing the region politically as well as to push China’s own interests.

China has been successful in commercially penetrating into the region, responding and fulfilling their immediate economic needs, specially the consumer goods requirements of these countries. Beijing realized that it could offer major trade opportunities as well as capital and technology to weak Central Asian states. The geographical continuity had made China’s trading with Central Asia much easier.

Since 1991 China viewed Central Asia as a promising economic market. China’s new war of economic influence was replicated in its northern borders with Russia, Mongolia and Central Asian states. In favor of this concern, the Chinese authorities have strongly advocated the idea of formation of a Northeast Asian economic cooperation zone. They have argued that with the rich energy, labor, capital and technology, and vast market space available in the region, a Northeast Asian economic zone could be developed into one of the most vigorous and competitive economic zones in the world. Even it could become an economically strong north flank of East Asia, which could make Asia stronger economically together with the ASEAN economic zone in the south and the Chinese economic area in the middle. So they have viewed the entire northwest region as an important growth center.

Within the framework of this idea, in 1992, China doubled Eastern Turkistan’s annual allocation and gave the province the right to conduct preferential trade policies. It also created free economic zones in the province. Thus the province was converted into a new prosperity zone that would attract the foreign investments. Some towns – such as Yining, Taching and Bole – were approved as border open cities. It has also built a high-grade highway linking various cities and countries in its northwest region.

Since 1992 China has been organizing trade fair in Urumchi and other towns for promoting trade and economic ties with the neighboring states. Beijing has also supported the Historical Silk Road project. A number of Eurasian highways, including rail and pipeline construction, are being planned that will ensure a long-term role for China in Central Asia.

On the other hand, China’s growing interest in Central Asia has been viewed by Russia as a strategic challenge. In various occasions, Moscow expressed its displeasure over Central Asian independent policies toward China. Therefore Moscow insisted that discussion on border disputes, troop reduction and confidence-building measures with Central Asian states should have joint delegation consisting of Russian representatives. Russians, Central Asians and Mongols believe that China is in a search for lebensraum.

5.   China’s Perception of Today’s International Situation

Within the framework of its ambitious aims, China has strongly advocated the idea of multi-polarity. Otherwise China will not realize its own aims. For China no country should establish its own hegemony over the region. Secondly China strongly supported the concept of economic globalization. According to some Chinese authorities and scholar, this concept is helping the developing countries develop their industrial infrastructure. In favor of these two concepts, China has also wanted to see a peace in the world.

5.1 Development of Multi-Polarity

According to Chinese officials, the current international situation is undergoing profound changes. There is an increase of factors of instability. The world is far from tranquil. Hegemonism and power politics continue to exist and even made further inroads in international politics, economy and security,

The Chinese authorities have claimed that by virtue of its economic, technological and military advantages an individual country (the United States) is pursuing a new “gunboat policy”, which characterizes “the Neo-Interventionism” that is contrary to the UN Charter and the universally-acknowledged principles governing international relations in an attempt to establish a monopolar world under its guidance.

In the meantime, new economic colonialism seriously infringes upon the sovereignty, independence and development interests of many medium and small countries and threatens world peace and security.

Therefore China is firmly opposed any form of hegemonism and power politics. China is ready, together with the international community, to safeguard world peace and stability and make joint efforts to bring about a just and equitable new international political and economic order.

At the end progress in multi-polarity is an evitable trend of the times and any attempt aimed at setting up a single pole in the world is doomed to failure. The Chinese authorities have believed that multi-polarization in the international system helps weaken and curb hegemonism and power politics, serves to bring about a just and equitable new international political and economic order and contributes to world peace and development.

5.2 Economic Globalization

In addition to the political concerns, for the Chinese authorities, economic globalization has brought new opportunities to the development of various countries. However, the developed and developing countries are not the same so far as making use of these opportunities and the ability to prevent and resist the risks are concerned. Globally the gap between the North and South is still widening, the poor countries are becoming more impoverished and the wealthy states are becoming richer. If such a situation were to continue, not only the economic development of the developing countries will be seriously curtailed, but also the economies of the developed countries will be faced with difficulties in achieving a steady growth. To reform and perfect the international financial system and establish a just and fair new international order is the consensus and unanimous demand of the international community.

5.3  World Peace

For China, the most important issue facing countries of the world is defending world peace and promoting common development. Only when the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, the purposes and recognized norms of international laws are strictly adhered to, can world peace be genuinely maintained and common development materialized and a peaceful, just, prosperous and stable new world be brought into the 21^st century.

6.   China’s Official Policy toward Russia and Central Asia

Since the beginning of reform and opening up to the outside world, China has taken “the acceleration of economic development, the raising of the living standard, and the attainment of a peaceful international environment to facilitate its modernization drive” as its supreme national interests. In its independent foreign policy, China focuses on the improvement of relations with all its neighboring countries. China has desired to expand its relations with Russia, including political relations on the basis of the five principles of peaceful co-existence and refrain from arguing over ideological differences.

China clearly perceives that the building of good neighborly relations with Russia and the Central Asian states fully conforms to its national interest and meets its foreign policy objectives in attaining external favorable conditions for assuring China’s economic development and national security, and it needs to apply an all-round opening up policy including the opening up of its northern and western border areas to the outside world.

7  China’s Current Relations with Russia and Central Asia

7.1 General Overview

Professor Xu Kui has argued that Russia, as the main successor state to the Soviet Union, remains one of the major world powers, because of its economic and scientific potentials and military power. The Central Asian countries, with their rich resources of oil, gas and other minerals, as well as important geo-strategic positions in Central Eurasia, are going to play an important role in the world arena. The state and character of the relationships of Russia, Central Asia and China are not only of great importance:

a) For the development and security of these countries themselves;

b) For the peace and stability of Asia and the world at large.

 7.2 State of Relationships in Recent Years

 The relationships between the Central Asian states and Russia, on the one hand, and China, on the other hand, are quite good. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, within a very short period, this relationship has developed in a rapid, smooth and healthy way.

7.2.1 Political Relations

In politics a good neighborly relationships have been established. At the end of 1992, President Boris Yeltsin paid first visit to China. As a result of the summit meeting, the first Sino-Russian Joint Communiqué was signed.  It became the legal basis of bilateral relations. In 1994 President Jian Zeming went to Moscow and during the official visit the second Sino – Russian Joint Communiqué was signed.

Presidents of Nazarbayev,  Karimov, Akayev, Niyazov and Rakhmanov have all visited China in these years. Documents defining good neighborly relationships between each of these countries and China were signed. In 1994 Premier Li Peng paid an official visit to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. During his visit, Peng stressed that China is ready to join forces with the Central Asian countries to build the new Silk Road; designed to fulfill the basic needs of the 21^st century. Her reiterated that China would keep to four basic policies in developing relations with the Central Asian countries:

a) To maintain friendly relations and peaceful coexistence;

b) To develop mutually beneficial cooperation and promote common prosperity;

c) To respect people’s choices and not interfere in the internal affairs of the Central Asian states;

d) To respect the independence and sovereignty of the Central Asian states and promote regional stability.

He asserted that China would be a good friend of the Central Asian countries and it would not pursue a sphere of influence in Central Asia, political or economic.

7.2.2 Trade and Economic Relations

The trade and economic relations between Russia, Central Asia states and China has grown considerably. In the first two years, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, total volume of Russia’s foreign trade dropped. At the same time its trade turnover with China increased by 74.4 percent and by 31 percent respectively. Thus China became the second biggest trade partner of Russia.

In these years, the trade volume between the Central Asian countries and China also witnessed a rapid growth. In 1992 the trade volume between them amounted to 465 million dollars and in 1993 to 610 million dollars. The border trade, which rapidly developed in these years, has played an undeniable role in mitigating the shortage of food and consumer goods in Russia and Central Asia, and in invigorating the economic development of the border areas of China and their opening up to the outside world. The opening of the second trans-continental railway in 1992 deserves particular mention.

7.2.3 The Resolution of Border Issues and Disarmament

China has a territorial dispute with Russia since late 17^th century. During the period of rift between China and the Soviet Union, Chinese maps showed parts of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan as far as Lake of Balkash as well as the Pamirs within the borders of China. China claimed that the Russian Empire had occupied and annexed these lands from China in 1880s.

But, substantial progress has also been achieved in the resolution of border issues and in the negotiations on disarmament and military confidence measures in the bordering areas. The issues related to the border between Russia and China has been mostly settled. In 1994, the border treaty between China and Kazakhstan was signed. In September 1995, the 17^th round of negotiations on disarmament and military confidence measures in the bordering areas was held in Moscow with the participation of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China.

7.2.4   China’s Energy Policy

As mentioned in Part II, China’s demand for oil and natural gas is tremendously growing each year. Therefore China has involved the energy sectors of the Central Asian countries after the involvement of the Western oil companies that antagonized the Russians. In June 1997, China’s National Petroleum Company (CNPC), together with Texaco and Amoco, was a major oil concession, taking a 60 percent share of Kazakhstan’s richest Aktyubinsk oil field. In August 1997, CNPC won another tender giving it 60 percent share of developing Kazakhstan’s second richest Novy Uzen oil field. China has also signed an agreement with Turkmenistan to transfer natural gas and oil of Turkmenistan to China, South Korea and Japan. It is also planning to build a 2,000 mile-long pipeline across Eastern Turkistan to carry oil and gas to Chinese industrial cities as well as for exports to Japan.

China’s major investments in energy sector have significantly helped Kazakhstan overcome periodic shortages of foodstuffs and consumer goods. China’s involvement in energy sectors will have great geopolitical implications in the coming future. First of all it is increasing its influence over the Central Asia. Secondly its landward orientation can decline Russia’s strategic proximity with India. Thirdly, the Central Asian states view the closer ties with China as an essential balance to offset pressure and renew assertion from Russia in the future.